Iran War Triggers $299 Billion Asia-Pacific Losses, Brent Crude at $120/Barrel, Strait of Hormuz Closure Impacts Global Energy Supply Chains

Brent Crude Breaches $100/Barrel: West Asia Conflict Triggers 25% Surge, India's Import Bill at Risk

Brent crude has crossed $100/barrel after 1.5 months due to escalated US-Iran conflict, threatening India's oil import bill which could exceed $200 billion if prices sustain. India meets 88% of its oil needs via imports and every $1/barrel rise adds $2 billion to the annual import bill.

Brent Crude Falls $4.08 as Trump Halts Iran Attack for Strait of Hormuz Deal

Oil prices crashed over $4/barrel after President Trump halted a planned attack on Iran to pursue a nuclear deal. The move has de-escalated fears over Strait of Hormuz disruptions, but OPEC+ also approved a 188,000 bpd quota increase, adding downward pressure.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Oil Flows Drop 77% to 4.9 mb/d, Brent at $90, Risk of $100+

The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint for 21 million barrels/day – is causing global oil supply risks. India, as a major importer, faces higher delivered costs and inflationary pressures. This is crucial for understanding India's energy security, import dependence, and macroeconomic vulnerabilities.

IMF: Global Economy Weathered Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock via AI Investment Boom, Reserves Drawdown

IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva states the global economy has weathered the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure 'better than feared' due to strategic reserve drawdowns and an AI-driven investment boom. However, risks remain tilted to the downside with rising bond yields, stalled disinflation, and the threat of renewed energy price spikes as winter approaches.

PM Modi at SCO Summit: West Asia Crisis Threatens Global Energy, Trade, Supply Chains

PM Modi at the SCO Summit in Bishkek warned that the West Asia crisis (US-Israeli attacks on Iran) shows regional conflicts have global repercussions on energy, trade, and supply chains, disproportionately affecting the Global South. He emphasized dialogue and diplomacy over war, and called for unified action against terrorism without double standards. The summit also addressed connectivity, people-to-people ties, and India's SCO vision.

Global Refinery Attacks Spike Sulphur Prices Above $1,000/Tonne; Threatens India's Phosphatic Fertiliser Supply

The energy crisis has shifted from crude oil supply to refined products. Attacks on refineries in Russia and West Asia have caused sulphur prices to skyrocket from $200 to $1,000/tonne, severely affecting India's ability to manufacture phosphatic fertilizers. This distinct crisis poses a long-term threat to India's food security and fertiliser imports even as the country enjoys surplus refining capacity.

India's LNG Imports Rise 15.4% in May-July as US, Nigeria, Oman Offset Strait of Hormuz Crisis

India successfully diversified its LNG import sources during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, increasing imports by 15.4% in May-July 2026. The US became the top supplier, while imports from Qatar plummeted 91.3%, highlighting India's energy security strategy amid geopolitical turmoil.

OECD Upgrades India's GDP Growth to 7.1% for FY 2026-27; Multiple Agencies Raise Outlook

The OECD has raised India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2026-27 to 7.1% from 6.3%, joining S&P, Fitch, and Moody's in upgrading India's outlook. All agencies cite domestic resilience and robust demand despite global headwinds from the West Asia crisis. Students should note the convergence of global forecasts and the projected slowdown in the second half of the fiscal year.