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IMD Forecasts 8% 'Below Normal' Monsoon for 2026, Citing El Nino Impact on LPA

Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCSSC GATeachingPrelims HighMains MediumStatic GK Link
15 Apr 2026
~2 min
Source: The Hindu
Key Data:8% deficit forecast5% margin of errorBelow 90% LPA = Deficient2015 monsoon 86% LPA
Bodies:India Meteorological Department (IMD)
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What This Article Covers

1.IMD's April 2026 forecast predicts an 8% deficit ('below normal') in seasonal monsoon rainfall for June-September.

2.Historical data shows an IMD April deficit forecast often leads to drought, as seen in 2015 when a 93% LPA forecast resulted in 86% LPA.

3.The deficit is attributed to El Nino, with its timing crucial; impact may be countered by the Indian Ocean Dipole, but government preparations are advised.

The Big Picture
Prelims · HighMains · Medium

The India Meteorological Department predicts an 8% deficit, or 'below normal' monsoon for June-September 2026, based on El Nino conditions. This forecast, with a 5% margin of error, raises drought concerns, particularly for the critical August-September period, impacting agriculture and water resources.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

IMD Forecast Deficit8% (Below Normal)
Forecast Margin of Error5%
Deficient Monsoon ThresholdBelow 90% LPA
2015 Monsoon LPA86% (Forecast was 93%)
Critical Months ImpactedAugust & September

1-Minute Revision

  • ›IMD Forecast Deficit: 8% (Below Normal)
  • ›Forecast Margin of Error: 5%
  • ›Target this Data: 8% deficit forecast with 5% error margin for 2026 monsoon.
  • ›Target this Nodal Body: India Meteorological Department (IMD) under Ministry of Earth Sciences.
  • ›Target this Legal Point: IMD defines 'deficient' monsoon as rainfall below 90% of Long Period Average (LPA).

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Practice exam-style questions, track your score, and strengthen your recall.

Q1Static LinkageEasy

Which ministry/department is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) under?

Q2Statement-basedHard

Consider the following statements regarding the monsoon forecast discussed in the news:

1. The IMD has forecast a 'below normal' monsoon with an 8% deficit for the June-September 2026 season.

2. According to IMD's official terminology, a 'deficient' monsoon refers to rainfall between 90% and 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

3. The forecast anticipates a more depressed monsoon in the second half (August-September) due to the influence of El Nino conditions.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Q3Data-centricMedium

According to the IMD's April forecast mentioned in the article, what is the predicted rainfall deficit percentage for the 2026 monsoon season?

Q4Application/ImpactMedium

What is the primary reason cited by the IMD for its 'below normal' monsoon forecast for 2026?

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