01
Context / Background
India aims to become a developed country (Viksit Bharat) by 2047, but faces structural weaknesses in its economy. Policy-induced shocks from 2016 (demonetisation, poorly designed GST, NBFC crisis, COVID-19 management) reversed structural change, leading to rising farm employment, falling manufacturing share, and slowed non-farm job growth. The economy became more unequal, aggregate demand collapsed, and investment/GDP ratio fell. Actual GDP growth may be as low as 4.5% (according to a former Chief Economic Adviser), despite official figures of 6.2%.
02
Core Analysis & Implications
Female WPR in India is below 30%, comparable to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and declined steadily between 1983 and 2018. The decline initially reflected a U-shaped curve pattern, as women withdrew from agriculture due to mechanisation and increased education. However, post-2020, the rise in female WPR is distress-driven, with women pushed into unpaid family labour (UFL) in agriculture due to COVID-19 and non-farm job collapse. This 'distress-driven feminisation of agriculture' is a sign of economic distress, not empowerment.
03
The North-South Divide
Tamil Nadu demonstrates what is achievable: over 40% of India's women factory workers are employed there, despite the state having only 5-6% of India's population. This is driven by strong presence in textiles, garments, footwear, electronics assembly, and automobiles, along with higher female literacy, greater mobility, and developed hostel/transport facilities. In contrast, Bihar's female WPR is only 15%. Hindi-belt states need to invest in health and public education (not insurance-based), especially for girls, to reduce malnutrition and stunting rates.
04
The Challenge of Educated Young Women
While gross enrolment at secondary level was universalised between 2010 and 2015 with gender parity, educated young women face high and rising unemployment. The number of young women (15-29) neither working nor in education rose from under 70 million in 2004 to over 100 million by 2018. This represents a massive waste of human capital. India cannot become a developed country by excluding half its population from productive employment.
05
Future Outlook / Way Forward
To achieve Viksit Bharat, India must address the structural barriers to female employment. This includes investing in labour-intensive manufacturing (textiles, food processing, garments) which has seen falling employment despite 'Make in India' initiatives. States must emulate Tamil Nadu's model of higher female literacy, mobility, and supportive infrastructure (hostels, transport). Gender equality in all dimensions, especially in north India, is a prerequisite for sustained rapid growth of 8-9%.