CAD Moderates to $30.1 Billion (1% of GDP) in FY 2025-26, Forex Reserves Rise to $709.75 Billion

RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as CPI Inflation Hits 4.38% in June; Forex Reserves Near $700 Bn

RBI's MPC kept repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth time, prioritizing growth despite CPI inflation rising to 4.38% in June, above the 4% target. Elevated global crude prices and geopolitical uncertainties are key concerns. The central bank is using tools like dollar-rupee swaps and FCNR(B) deposits to manage liquidity and shore up forex reserves near $700 billion, while the rupee recovers to around ₹95.

IMF: Global Economy Weathered Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock via AI Investment Boom, Reserves Drawdown

IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva states the global economy has weathered the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure 'better than feared' due to strategic reserve drawdowns and an AI-driven investment boom. However, risks remain tilted to the downside with rising bond yields, stalled disinflation, and the threat of renewed energy price spikes as winter approaches.

World Bank ED Neelkanth Mishra: India Needs 10% Growth for Full Employment, AI Can Disrupt Education

Neelkanth Mishra, India's Executive Director at the World Bank, argues that India cannot create enough jobs for all at current growth rates, requiring 10% real growth for full employment. He highlights rising inequality as a natural outcome of labour surplus and capital shortage, and advocates democratising access to capital. He also discusses India's energy vulnerability, rupee stability, and the transformative potential of AI in education.

India's 8% GDP Growth Amid West Asia Shock; Structural Reforms Key for Sustained Growth

India's GDP growth is expected at 8% despite the West Asia conflict, driven by fiscal-monetary stimulus and export growth. However, fixed investment remains stagnant at 32% of GDP, and corporate capex is low. The article stresses urgent structural reforms to boost consumption, exports, and private investment for long-term growth. Essential for understanding current economic challenges and policy priorities.

India's Q1 GDP Growth Surprises at 7.8%, Manufacturing at 9.2% Despite West Asia Crisis

India's economy defied expectations with a robust 7.8% real GDP growth in Q1 FY26, led by manufacturing at 9.2% and strong services. However, the RBI's 125 bps rate cuts and a GST cut helped, but headwinds like high oil prices (>$80/bbl), deficient monsoon, and slowing global services demand pose a serious stamina test. For exams, this is a classic 'resilience vs. vulnerability' case study for GS3.

JCRA Upgrades India's Sovereign Rating to A- on 7.7% GDP Growth, NPA Ratio Falls to 1.8%

Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCRA) upgraded India's sovereign rating to A- from BBB+, citing strong economic growth of 7.7% in FY2026, robust private consumption, public investment, and improvements in the banking sector. The upgrade reflects India's sustained growth trajectory and enhanced financial stability, with gross NPA ratio falling to 1.8% due to IBC and RBI supervision.

RBI's Forex Swap Facility Attracts $136.3 Billion, Reserves at Record $729 Billion, Liquidity Surplus Rises

The RBI's measures to boost capital flows have massively exceeded expectations, with $136.3 billion in inflows through the forex swap facility, pushing forex reserves to a record $729 billion. However, this has created a liquidity surplus of Rs 6.7 lakh crore, complicating inflation management and looming rate hike decisions. This is critical for understanding India's external stability and the RBI's monetary policy challenges.

Brazil-India Trade Nears $20 Billion, BRICS Not Anti-Western, Says Brazil FM

Brazil's Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira highlights rapidly growing Brazil-India bilateral trade, nearing $20 billion with a $30 billion target by 2030. He clarifies that BRICS is not an anti-Western bloc and has no intention to replace the US dollar, while the New Development Bank aims to reform global governance. The interview also covers the pause in BRICS expansion and Brazil's deepening engagement with ASEAN.