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India's BoP Under Pressure: CAD to Widen to $100 Billion, FDI Dries Up Amid Global Tightening

Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCBankingSSC GATeachingPrelims HighMains HighStatic GK Link
21 May 2026
~2 min
Source: Indian Express
Key Data:CAD projected ~$100 billionCAD average <1% of GDP (last 3 years)Net FDI dried up since 2024Pre-pandemic capital inflows avg. 2.5% of GDPPre-2024 Net FDI avg. 1.5% of GDP
Bodies:RBI
Practice MCQs from today's news ▸
What This Article Covers

1.Balance of Payments in deficit for three consecutive years, a first in three decades, driven by capital account pressures.

2.Net FDI, previously 1.5% of GDP, has dried up since 2024, strongly correlated with US Treasury yields, indicating 'push' factor dominance.

3.Current Account Deficit (CAD) is projected to double to nearly $100 billion this fiscal year due to high crude oil prices, requiring policy measures beyond just rupee depreciation.

The Big Picture
Prelims · HighMains · High

India faces a unique Balance of Payments crisis driven by capital account pressures, not the current account, with net FDI drying up since 2024 and CAD projected to widen to $100 billion this fiscal. This demands a policy response focused on capital augmentation and a weaker rupee, distinct from past episodes.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

BoP Deficit YearsThree consecutive years (projected)
Net FDI Dried Up Since2024
CAD Projection (FY26)Close to $100 billion
CAD Average (Last 3 Years)Less than 1% of GDP
Pre-pandemic Capital InflowsAveraged 2.5% of GDP
Pre-2024 Net FDI Average1.5% of GDP

1-Minute Revision

  • ›BoP Deficit Years: Three consecutive years (projected)
  • ›Net FDI Dried Up Since: 2024
  • ›Target this Data: Current Account Deficit projected to widen to ~$100 billion in the current fiscal year.
  • ›Target this Nodal Body: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for managing BoP and exchange rate policy.
  • ›Target this Economic Concept: The distinction between 'push' factors (global conditions) and 'pull' factors (domestic conditions) driving FDI.

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Q1Static LinkageEasy

Which institution in India is the primary authority for managing the country's Balance of Payments and exchange rate policy?

Q2Statement-basedHard

Consider the following statements regarding the Balance of Payments situation discussed in the article:

1. The pressure on the rupee is primarily emanating from a widening Current Account Deficit (CAD).

2. India's net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has shown a strong correlation with US 10-Year Treasury yields since 2010.

3. The article projects India's CAD to widen to approximately $100 billion in the current fiscal year due to high crude oil prices.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Q3Data-centricMedium

According to the article, what was the average Current Account Deficit (CAD) as a percentage of GDP over the last three years?

Q4Application/ImpactMedium

What is the primary policy response advocated in the article to address the unique Balance of Payments pressures described?

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