01
Context / Background
The article highlights a fundamental shift in US Asia strategy. Until recently, the US aimed to contain China through alliances (Quad, AUKUS) and military presence. However, high costs of the Ukraine war, the Iran war, and China's deep economic integration with Asian economies have forced Washington to treat Beijing as a G2 equal. This reduces India's centrality in US Indo-Pacific plans.
02
US De-prioritises India, Engages South Asia Directly
The US now sees India more as a large market and subordinate partner than a key strategic ally. The February 7 US-India joint statement calls for closer alignment of Indian interests with America's. Simultaneously, Washington is deepening defence, maritime and infrastructure cooperation with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives, treating South Asia as an integrated theatre rather than India's backyard.
03
China's String of Pearls and Pakistan's Role
China has over a decade built a network of ports and infrastructure across South Asia – CPEC, Gwadar, Hambantota, Colombo Port City, BRI projects in Nepal and Bangladesh, Maldives projects. Pakistan, as the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation, maintains ties with US, China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Iran, positioning itself as a swing state. Both US and China see Pakistan as a counterweight to India.
04
Challenges for India's Regional Leadership
SAARC is largely dysfunctional. Relations with Bangladesh, Nepal and the Maldives remain volatile. India's trade surplus with South Asia has grown from $6.7bn to $20bn, but political influence has not kept pace. Intensifying US-China competition could deepen these challenges.
05
Way Forward: Transactionalism and Self-Reliance
India must strengthen domestic manufacturing, AI, semiconductors, critical minerals, defence production, reducing dependence on Chinese inputs. It should preserve strategic autonomy by judging each issue on merit, build connectivity and development partnerships with neighbours, and avoid forums that involve external powers in South Asian affairs – as in the Colombo South Asia Dialogue where India participated alongside Pakistan, US, UK.