IMD Forecasts 10% Monsoon Deficit, El Nino Emergence Recalls 1876-78 Great Famine Toll of 55-82 Lakh

NOAA Projects 69% Chance of Historic El Niño Since 1950; IMD Reports Below-Normal Monsoon

A potentially historic El Niño is developing in the Pacific, with NOAA projecting a 69% chance it will exceed the strongest events since 1950. For India, the impact may lag by 40-45 days, likely after the southwest monsoon's official withdrawal, though the current monsoon is already 12% below normal.

WMO Warns 'Very Strong' El Nino Till Feb 2027; Threat to Monsoon & Winters

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns of a 'very strong' El Nino that will persist until February 2027, with potential to disrupt global weather patterns, including India's monsoon and winter. This is a critical update for exam aspirants as it links to geography, climate, and agriculture.

UK Met Office Forecasts Record El Nino >3°C; 2027 Likely Hottest Year on Record

The UK Met Office has forecast the strongest El Nino in over a century, with Pacific sea surface temperatures rising over 3°C above normal. This unprecedented event could make 2027 the hottest year globally, impacting global weather patterns including drier conditions in India and severe droughts in South America and the West Pacific.

2026 Monsoon Prediction Failure: El Niño Accuracy vs. Sub-seasonal Erratic Evolution Challenges

Climate models accurately predicted the 2026 El Niño and a deficient monsoon season, but failed to capture the erratic, sub-seasonal swings—like June’s 40% deficit followed by July’s recovery—which severely impacted farmers. This highlights a critical gap: while seasonal all-India rainfall totals can be forecast, long-lead predictions of spatial and temporal monsoon evolution remain unreliable, and AI-driven hybrid models are the most promising way forward.

Bihar Floods: Ganga Breaches Previous HFLs Despite 27% Rain Deficit; Farakka Barrage & Backwater Effect Key Causes

Bihar experienced severe flooding in September 2026 despite a 27% rainfall deficit, because the Ganga rose first (not the Nepal-origin rivers) due to upstream rainfall in UP, creating a 'backwater effect' that blocked tributary drainage. The article also highlights the role of siltation from the Farakka Barrage and the approaching expiry of the 1996 India-Bangladesh Farakka Treaty.

Climate Impact Lab Report Projects 15,800 Additional Heat Deaths in India Due to Super El Nino

The Climate Impact Lab projects 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between Sept 2026 and Feb 2027 due to the ongoing 'Super El Niño'. Globally, 451,000 excess deaths are expected in the first six months. The report warns that this El Niño is a 'postcard from the future', bringing temperatures typical of 20 years from now without adaptation.

15,800 Excess Heat Deaths Projected in India Amid Super El Niño: CIL Report

A new report from the Climate Impact Lab warns of 15,800 excess heat-related deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027, driven by a Super El Niño. Southern India is especially vulnerable. This is a 'postcard from the future' – a preview of climate impacts 20 years ahead.

Black Carbon Crisis: 1/3 Himalayan Glacier Loss Linked to 32-42% Brick Kiln Soot Emissions

A new Systemiq report titled 'A Resilient Himalaya' links about one-third of Himalayan glacier mass loss to South Asian black carbon, with brick kilns contributing 32–42% of the deposition. Since black carbon is a short-lived pollutant, reducing kiln emissions can simultaneously improve local air quality and slow glacier melt — a rare fast-win climate action for India.