7.8% Q1 GDP Growth Faces Mistrust as Employment Stagnates, Wages Fall, Inflation Spikes

India's Q1 GDP Growth at 7.8% but Raises Concerns on Jobs, Wages & Investment

MoSPI reported India's Q1 2026-27 GDP growth at 7.8% constant and 10.3% nominal. However, the article by P Chidambaram highlights deep structural concerns: high youth unemployment (16.2%), 8.7 crore NEET youth, negative real wage growth for casual workers, stagnant manufacturing at 13% of GVA, and low private capex. The data raises questions on whether growth is percolating to citizens.

India's GDP Growth Stays Above 7% Amid West Asia War: 125 bps Repo Rate Cut, Low Services Inflation Key

The Indian economy has defied expectations of a sharp slowdown despite the West Asia war. GDP growth remained above 7%, inflation stayed low, and current account deficit was contained at 0.3% of GDP. Key factors include 125 bps repo rate cuts, GST cuts, and resilient services exports and low services inflation. However, risks persist from rising food inflation, potential El Niño impact, and vulnerability of services sector.

JCRA Upgrades India's Sovereign Rating to A- on 7.7% GDP Growth, NPA Ratio Falls to 1.8%

Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCRA) upgraded India's sovereign rating to A- from BBB+, citing strong economic growth of 7.7% in FY2026, robust private consumption, public investment, and improvements in the banking sector. The upgrade reflects India's sustained growth trajectory and enhanced financial stability, with gross NPA ratio falling to 1.8% due to IBC and RBI supervision.

US Labour Dept Suspends Cognizant's PERM Green-Card Filings Amid Fraud Probe; IT Industry Faces Tougher Scrutiny

The US Department of Labour has suspended Cognizant's PERM green-card filings amid a fraud investigation, signalling heightened scrutiny on the H-1B-to-green-card pathway for Indian IT professionals. This move could trigger talent retention issues for Cognizant and push the broader IT industry toward local hiring and stricter compliance.

SC to Hear PIL Against 0.4% MDR on UPI Transactions Over ₹2000 from Oct 15

The Supreme Court will hear a PIL on September 28, 2026 challenging the government's decision to impose a 0.4% Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI person-to-merchant transactions above ₹2,000, effective October 15. The PIL alleges the framework lacks transparency and is arbitrary, questioning amendments to Section 10A of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act.

₹26.75 Lakh Cr Corporate Investment Announced: 56% in ITES, Consumer Demand Weak (CMIE Data)

India's corporate investment announcements hit ₹26.75 lakh crore in first four months of FY26, but 56% is in ITES (data centres & AI) and only 0.7% in consumer goods, highlighting persistent weak consumer demand. This trend is crucial for understanding GDP growth dynamics and policy implications.

Govt Proposes 0.25-0.5% MDR on UPI Transactions Above ₹2,000 via PSS Act Amendment

The government has proposed allowing a Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) of 0.25-0.5% on UPI transactions above ₹2,000 via an amendment to Section 10A of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007. This reverses a decade-long zero-MDR policy, potentially undermining financial inclusion, formalisation, and investment in UPI infrastructure. While only 5% of transactions by volume are affected, they account for 65% of transaction value, making this a significant policy shift.

World Bank ED Neelkanth Mishra: India Needs 10% Growth for Full Employment, AI Can Disrupt Education

Neelkanth Mishra, India's Executive Director at the World Bank, argues that India cannot create enough jobs for all at current growth rates, requiring 10% real growth for full employment. He highlights rising inequality as a natural outcome of labour surplus and capital shortage, and advocates democratising access to capital. He also discusses India's energy vulnerability, rupee stability, and the transformative potential of AI in education.