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WMO Warns 80% El Niño Likelihood by June-August 2026, Threatens Global Extreme Weather Events

Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCSSC GATeachingPrelims HighMains MediumStatic GK Link
02 Jun 2026
~2 min
Source: Indian Express
Key Data:80%June-August 2026+0.5°C-0.5°C-0.5°C (Feb-Apr)
Bodies:WMOUN
Practice MCQs from today's news ▸
What This Article Covers

1.The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts an 80% certainty of El Niño development during June-August, which will influence global temperature and rainfall patterns.

2.El Niño is part of the ENSO cycle and is determined by sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean.

3.Examiners frequently test the definition of El Niño/La Niña, the role of WMO, and the quantitative thresholds (+0.5°C for El Niño, -0.5°C for La Niña) for the Oceanic Niño Index.

The Big Picture
Prelims · HighMains · Medium

The UN's World Meteorological Organization warns of an 80% probability of El Niño developing by June-August 2026, which will significantly increase the risk of extreme global weather. This event acts as a 'fuel on the fire' for climate change, making it critical for exam aspirants to understand its oceanic and atmospheric mechanics.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

El Niño Probability80%
Development WindowJune-August 2026
El Niño ThresholdOceanic Niño Index > +0.5°C
La Niña ThresholdOceanic Niño Index < -0.5°C
Latest Index Value-0.5°C (Feb-Apr)

1-Minute Revision

  • ›El Niño Probability: 80%
  • ›Development Window: June-August 2026
  • ›Target this Data: 80% probability for June-August 2026 development.
  • ›Target this Nodal Body: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency.
  • ›Target this Legal Point: ENSO phases defined by Oceanic Niño Index thresholds: El Niño > +0.5°C, La Niña < -0.5°C.

Mastered this topic? Test your knowledge with a full MCQ quiz.

Practice exam-style questions, track your score, and strengthen your recall.

Q1Static LinkageEasy

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which issued the El Niño warning, is a specialized agency of which international organization?

Q2Statement-basedHard

Consider the following statements regarding the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

1. The phase of ENSO is determined by the value of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index.

2. El Niño conditions are declared when the sea surface temperature departure in the Niño 3.4 region is above +0.5 degrees Celsius.

3. The latest Oceanic Niño Index value for February-April, as mentioned in the article, indicated La Niña conditions.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Q3Data-centricMedium

According to the WMO update, what is the percentage likelihood of El Niño developing during the June-August period?

Q4Application/ImpactMedium

As per the article, what is the primary reason the UN Secretary-General urged the world to treat the developing El Niño as an urgent warning?

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