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Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Explained: 1997 Monsoon Surplus vs 2026 Super El Niño Threat

EnvironmentHIGH
Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCTeachingSSC GAPrelims HighMains HighStatic GK Link
01 Jul 2026
~2 min
Source: The Hindu
Key Data:40% deficit90% of LPA2% above normal1997Super El Niño
Bodies:India Meteorological DepartmentIMD
Practice MCQs from today's news ▸
What This Article Covers

1.The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a sea surface temperature oscillation in the equatorial Indian Ocean that can influence monsoon rainfall, uniquely countering El Niño's drying effect in 1997.

2.1997 saw a 'fierce' El Niño, yet June-September rainfall was 2% above normal—an event IMD Director-General says 'happened only once ever' due to a strong positive IOD.

3.In 2026, a 'Super El Niño' is forecast; current monsoon deficit stands at 40%, with IMD expecting overall season rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, barely above 'deficient'.

The Big Picture
Prelims · HighMains · High

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon that can offset El Niño's drought impact on the Indian monsoon, as seen in 1997 when rains were 2% above normal despite a fierce El Niño. With a 'Super El Niño' forecast for 2026 and monsoon currently running a 40% deficit, the IOD's role is under scrutiny. Only once in recorded history has IOD fully counteracted El Niño, making this a high-exam relevance topic.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

1997 Monsoon Outcome2% above normal (surplus) despite strong El Niño
2026 Forecast (June-Sept)90% of Long Period Average (LPA)
Current Deficit (as of article)40% deficit in monsoon rainfall
El Niño CategorySuper El Niño (forecast for 2026)

1-Minute Revision

  • ›1997 Monsoon Outcome: 2% above normal (surplus) despite strong El Niño
  • ›2026 Forecast (June-Sept): 90% of Long Period Average (LPA)
  • ›Target this Data: 1997 monsoon surplus = 2% above normal despite El Niño; 2026 forecast = 90% of LPA; current deficit = 40%
  • ›Target this Nodal Body: India Meteorological Department (IMD) — DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra
  • ›Target this Legal Point: Not applicable (no legal/act involved)

Mastered this topic? Test your knowledge with a full MCQ quiz.

Practice exam-style questions, track your score, and strengthen your recall.

Q1Static LinkageEasy

Which organization is primarily responsible for monitoring and forecasting the Indian monsoon and related phenomena like IOD and El Niño as mentioned in the news?

Q2Statement-basedHard

Consider the following statements regarding the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and its impact on the Indian monsoon:

1. A positive IOD is characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean compared to the eastern Indian Ocean, which typically enhances monsoon rainfall over India.

2. In 1997, despite a very strong El Niño, India experienced a drought because the IOD was negative.

3. The IOD can sometimes counteract the drought-causing effect of El Niño, as seen in 1997 when monsoon rainfall was 2% above normal.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Q3Data-centricMedium

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), what was the June-September monsoon rainfall outcome in 1997 relative to the long-period average?

Q4Application/ImpactMedium

Why is a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) considered beneficial for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during an El Niño year?

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