RBI Revises FY25 Inflation Forecast to 5.1% Amid Global Volatility and Rising Food Prices

US Fed Hikes Rates to 3.75–4%; RBI MPC Seen Raising Repo Rate to 5.5% in October

The US Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4%, its first hike in three years, with all 12 FOMC members voting in favour. With India's CPI inflation at 4.82% in August and price pressures generalising, the RBI's MPC (Oct 5–7) is expected to hike the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5%. This is a high-yield monetary policy development for Prelims and Mains.

RBI MPC to Hold Repo Rate as Inflation Nears 4% Target Amid Crude Oil, Monsoon Risks

The RBI's MPC meeting on August 5 is expected to maintain status quo on the repo rate. The article explains the key factors influencing this decision: inflation at the 4% target, rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions (US-Iran), monsoon deficit due to El Niño, mixed high-frequency growth indicators, and actions of other central banks. Students must understand the trade-offs in monetary policy for prelims and mains.

US Fed Raises Rates by 25 bps to 3.75-4%, Inflation Stays at 3.4% - Implications for RBI MPC

US Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75-4% as inflation remains high at 3.4%. Trump opposes the hike but central bank independence is key. This signals global tightening ahead of RBI MPC meeting in October, raising chances of rate action in India.

RBI Worried as Aug 2026 CPI Inflation Hits 8-Month High of 4.82%; Sugar & Chip Prices Surge

India's August 2026 retail inflation rose to 4.82% (8-month high), driven by a 24% YoY jump in sugar prices and rising memory chip costs ('chipflation'). This puts pressure on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to hike the repo rate for the first time in 3.5 years. For exam aspirants, this is a classic case of supply-shock inflation testing central bank credibility.

Global Agencies Upgrade India GDP Forecast to ~7%, RBI May Hike Repo Rate 25 bps as Inflation Pressures Build

Multiple global agencies (ADB, S&P, OECD, Moody's) have raised India's FY26 growth forecast to around 7%, driven by strong IIP, capex, and exports. However, inflation is expected to average 5.1% and the RBI may raise its policy rate by 25 bps, with farm sector risks from El Niño adding to uncertainty.

CPI Inflation Hits 4.8% (20-Month High), Raises Odds of RBI Rate Hike in October MPC Meet

August CPI inflation surged to a 20-month high of 4.8%, driven by food prices rising 5.7%. This increases the probability of an RBI rate hike in the October MPC meeting, especially with global central banks hiking rates and Brent crude above $100/barrel. For UPSC/Banking aspirants, this is a key data point linking inflation dynamics, monetary policy, and global spillovers.

RBI MPC Status Quo at 5.25% as CPI Inflation Rises to 4.8%, WPI at 9.92%

Retail inflation rose to 4.8% in August 2026, with food inflation at 5.95% and WPI at 9.92%. Broad-based price pressures strengthen the case for an RBI rate hike, despite the MPC keeping repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in August. This is critical for understanding monetary policy direction and the inflation targeting framework.

RBI MPC Keeps Repo Rate at 5.25%, Hikes GDP Growth to 6.7%, Lowers Inflation to 5%

RBI's MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, balancing growth and inflation amid global uncertainties. GDP growth forecast for FY27 was marginally hiked to 6.7%, while inflation projection was cut to 5%. This decision impacts loan EMIs, deposit rates, and the overall economic outlook, making it a critical topic for exams covering monetary policy and economic indicators.