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El Niño Returns with 62% 'Very Strong' Risk, Global Fertilizer Prices Skyrocket Amid West Asia Conflict, Threatening Food Inflation

Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCTeachingSSC GAPrelims HighMains Medium
14 Jun 2026
~2 min
Source: Indian Express
Key Data:62-63% probability0.7°C SST deviation$935-959/tonne urea130.8 FAO Index points4.8% India CFPI42.8 MT wheat stocks
Bodies:NOAAFAOUSDAIMF
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What This Article Covers

1.NOAA declared El Niño conditions with a 62-63% probability of a 'very strong' event during Oct-Jan 2026, which typically brings dry weather to India and can suppress Rabi crop yields.

2.Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused global fertilizer prices to soar, with India's urea import prices more than doubling from $410-420 to $935-959 per tonne year-on-year.

3.Despite these shocks, global food prices remain stable due to record harvests in 2024-25 and 2025-26, but India's consumer food price index inflation has already risen to 4.8% in May 2026.

The Big Picture
Prelims · HighMains · Medium

A new El Niño event, forecast to have a 62-63% chance of becoming 'very strong', coupled with a fertilizer supply shock from the West Asia conflict, threatens to push food inflation higher globally and in India. While bumper harvests have kept prices stable so far, the upcoming Rabi season is vulnerable to climatic and input cost pressures.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

El Niño Probability62-63% chance of 'very strong' event (Oct-Jan 2026)
Current SST Deviation0.7°C above average (Weak El Niño)
India's Urea Import Price (May 2026)$935-959/tonne (vs. $410-420/tonne a year ago)
FAO Food Price Index (May 2026)130.8 points (2.9% YoY increase)
India's Food Inflation (May 2026)4.8% (up from 2.1% in Jan 2026)
India's Wheat Stocks (May 1, 2026)42.8 million tonnes

1-Minute Revision

  • ›El Niño Probability: 62-63% chance of 'very strong' event (Oct-Jan 2026)
  • ›Current SST Deviation: 0.7°C above average (Weak El Niño)
  • ›Target this Data: 62-63% probability of a 'very strong' El Niño (Oct-Jan 2026).
  • ›Target this Nodal Body: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for El Niño declaration.
  • ›Target this Data: FAO Food Price Index reading of 130.8 points in May 2026.

Mastered this topic? Test your knowledge with a full MCQ quiz.

Practice exam-style questions, track your score, and strengthen your recall.

Q1Static LinkageEasy

Which international organization's food price index is cited in the article to show global food price trends?

Q2Statement-basedHard

Consider the following statements regarding the factors discussed in the article:

1. The El Niño event declared in June 2026 is currently classified as 'strong' based on sea surface temperature deviations.

2. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in global fertilizer prices.

3. India's wheat stocks as of May 1, 2026, were higher than their levels on April 1, 2004.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Q3Data-centricMedium

According to the article, what was the approximate percentage increase in the FAO's Vegetable Oil Price Index in May 2026 compared to May 2025?

Q4Application/ImpactMedium

What is identified in the article as the primary reason for the firming up of global vegetable oil prices, despite stable cereal prices?

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