Despite a strengthening El Niño, July monsoon revived with 2.4% above LPA rainfall, narrowing kharif sowing gap to 2.9% below last year. However, El Niño is expected to become very strong by Oct-Dec 2026, with lagged effects threatening rabi crops and global food prices, especially vegetable oils. India's food stocks remain adequate but inflation risks persist.
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- ›June Rainfall Deficit: 38% below LPA
- ›July Rainfall Anomaly: 2.4% above LPA
- ›Target this Data: June rainfall deficit 38% below LPA; July rainfall 2.4% above LPA.
- ›Target this Nodal Body: India Meteorological Department (IMD) for monsoon forecasts.
- ›Target this Index: FAO Food Price Index base period 2014-16 = 100; July value 131.1 points.
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