May 2026 CPI Inflation Rises to 3.93%, Driven by Food Prices; RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%

IIP August 2026: Manufacturing Output Rises 9%, Consumer Durables Up 11.1%

India's industrial output (IIP) grew 8% in August 2026, driven by manufacturing (9% growth) and a favourable base effect from pre-GST rate cut inventory adjustments in 2025. While consumer durables posted strong 11.1% growth, the slow 2.1% rise in non-durables signals weak rural/FMCG demand, a key concern for the upcoming festive season.

RBI MPC Status Quo at 5.25% as CPI Inflation Rises to 4.8%, WPI at 9.92%

Retail inflation rose to 4.8% in August 2026, with food inflation at 5.95% and WPI at 9.92%. Broad-based price pressures strengthen the case for an RBI rate hike, despite the MPC keeping repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in August. This is critical for understanding monetary policy direction and the inflation targeting framework.

India's July Retail Inflation Rises to 4.45%, RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%

India's July retail inflation rose to 4.45%, the highest in 19 months, driven by food and transport costs. The RBI's MPC held the repo rate at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting, balancing persistent supply-side inflation against weakening economic momentum. This is critical for exams as it tests your understanding of inflation dynamics, MPC decision-making, and the interplay between global disruptions (Ukraine-Russia) and domestic prices.

MoSPI Considers Diary-Based HCES for High-Income Households to Tackle 9.8% Urban Non-Response Rate

To counter rising non-response from affluent households in gated societies, MoSPI is piloting a 'diary-based' self-reporting method for the next Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) in 2027-28. This shift is critical because the HCES data directly impacts CPI basket weights, inflation targeting by RBI, and policy making, but raises concerns about data comparability due to differential recall errors between survey methods.

India GDP Growth May Hit 8% in Q1 2026‑27 on Best Loan Growth in Decade

India’s Q1 GDP data (Apr‑Jun 2026) is expected to surprise on the upside – possibly 7.9‑8% – driven by the best bank loan growth in over a decade (18.3% YoY). Despite the West Asia conflict and high oil prices ($97/bbl), the economy shows robust credit demand from industry and services, signalling strong structural momentum.

RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as CPI Inflation Hits 4.38% in June; Forex Reserves Near $700 Bn

RBI's MPC kept repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth time, prioritizing growth despite CPI inflation rising to 4.38% in June, above the 4% target. Elevated global crude prices and geopolitical uncertainties are key concerns. The central bank is using tools like dollar-rupee swaps and FCNR(B) deposits to manage liquidity and shore up forex reserves near $700 billion, while the rupee recovers to around ₹95.

RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%, Focuses on Core Inflation Ex Precious Metals

RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 5.25% but signaled a focus on core inflation excluding precious metals (currently 2.5%) as the 'lodestar' for policy. This puzzling communication suggests potential rate hikes later if core inflation converges, even as headline CPI is expected above 4% target. Key for understanding RBI's inflation targeting approach and market expectations.

India's GDP Expands 7.8% in Q1 FY26-27, Beats RBI 7.0% Forecast; Manufacturing & Services Drive Growth

India's real GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 of FY2026-27, surpassing RBI's 7.0% forecast. Manufacturing (9.2%) and services (10%) led the growth. Nominal GDP rose 10.3%. This indicates resilience despite Middle East crisis and high energy prices. The data will be crucial for UPSC Economy questions on GDP, GVA, and sectoral growth.