What is the common examiner trap about Environment in UPSC exams?

They may swap the impact regions: stating 'Northwest India is expected normal rain' (false, only Northeast is normal) or confuse 'El Niño' with 'Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)' as the immediate cause for the forecast. They might also ask about the 'normal date' for monsoon onset over Kerala (June 1) versus the 'forecast date' (not given in article).

What should UPSC aspirants remember about Environment for Prelims?

1. Target this Data: IMD's 2026 seasonal rainfall forecast of '90% of LPA' with '60%' probability of deficiency. 2. Target this Nodal Body: India Meteorological Department (IMD) for monsoon forecasts; Ministries of Agriculture, Jal Shakti, and Consumer Affairs for crisis management. 3. Target this Legal Point: The concept of 'monsoon core zone' and its significance for rain-fed agriculture.

EnvironmentAgriculture

Take AI Challenge ▸

News 0 of 25

IMD Forecasts Deficient Monsoon at 90% LPA with 60% Probability; El Niño Threatens Kharif Crop Amid Input Crisis

Q: Which ministry is primarily responsible for issuing the official monsoon forecast for India?

Ministry of Earth Sciences, The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which issues the monsoon forecast, operates under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES). While agriculture and water ministries use the forecast, the scientific prediction is MoES's mandate.

Q: Consider the following statements regarding the southwest monsoon forecast for 2026 as per the article: 1. The monsoon onset over Kerala was delayed, occurring on June 4, which was also later than IMD's own forecast. 2. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a 60% probability of a deficient year. 3. All regions of India, except the northeast, are expected to receive normal rainfall during the monsoon season. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Both 1 and 2, Statement 1 is correct: The article states the monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, which was three days past its normal date and four days behind IMD's own forecast. Statement 2 is correct: IMD pegged seasonal rainfall at 90% of LPA with a 60% probability of an outright deficient year. Statement 3 is incorrect: The article says only the northeast is expected to see normal rain; northwest, central India, the peninsula and the monsoon core zone are all forecast to fall short.

Q: According to the India Meteorological Department's forecast mentioned in the article, what is the probability of the monsoon season being 'deficient' in 2026?

60%, The article explicitly states that the IMD has pegged seasonal rainfall with "a 60% probability of an outright deficient year." The other percentages are distractors not mentioned in the context of this forecast.

Q: What is the primary reason cited in the article for the government to activate ministries on a 'war footing' in response to the monsoon forecast?

To manage the risk of sown crops facing danger from unwatered dry spells and an ongoing input crisis., The article emphasizes that the distribution of rainfall matters, with risks of "sudden long dry spells" leaving "sown crops...unwatered." It further states this monsoon is "exceptionally" consequential because it "arrives atop an input crisis" from West Asia affecting fertilizer and energy. Therefore, proactive management of agricultural and input risks is the core rationale for urgent action.

Environment Agriculture EconomyHIGH

Target:UPSC GS-IIIMPSCTeachingSSC GAPrelims HighMains Medium

07 Jun 2026

~2 min

Source: The Hindu

Key Data:90% of LPA60% probabilityJune 4, 2026 onset

Bodies:India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Practice MCQs from today's news ▸

~2 min · Quick mode

What This Article Covers

1.IMD predicts seasonal rainfall at 90% of LPA with 60% chance of deficiency; only NE India expected normal rain.

2.Onset was delayed, reaching Kerala on June 4, 2026, marking first major forecast miss since 2015.

3.Government urged to activate ministries on war footing to manage crop water stress, groundwater, and relief.

The Big Picture

Prelims · HighMains · Medium

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a deficient southwest monsoon at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a 60% probability, marking its most pessimistic pre-season call in a decade. This comes amid a near-certain El Niño event and an ongoing input crisis from West Asia, threatening India's rain-fed agriculture and kharif production.

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast90% of Long Period Average (LPA)

Probability of Deficient Year60%

Monsoon Onset Date (2026)June 4 (Kerala)

Regions Expected Normal RainNortheast India only

1-Minute Revision

›Seasonal Rainfall Forecast: 90% of Long Period Average (LPA)
›Probability of Deficient Year: 60%
›Target this Data: IMD's 2026 seasonal rainfall forecast of '90% of LPA' with '60%' probability of deficiency.
›Target this Nodal Body: India Meteorological Department (IMD) for monsoon forecasts; Ministries of Agriculture, Jal Shakti, and Consumer Affairs for crisis management.
›Target this Legal Point: The concept of 'monsoon core zone' and its significance for rain-fed agriculture.

Mastered this topic? Test your knowledge with a full MCQ quiz.

Practice exam-style questions, track your score, and strengthen your recall.

News Snapshot

🌧️

Deficient Forecast

IMD forecasts monsoon rainfall at 90% of LPA with 60% probability of a deficient season, its most pessimistic call in 10 years.

🌾

Agricultural Risk

The monsoon core zone, which waters most rain-fed farmland, is forecast to fall short, threatening kharif crops amid fertilizer and energy supply disruptions.

🔥

El Niño & Policy Response

With El Niño near-certain, the article urges war-footing action from Agriculture, Jal Shakti, and Consumer Affairs Ministries for crop insurance and water management.

Detailed Analysis & Strategic Depth

Context / Background

The southwest monsoon is critical for India's agriculture, impacting food security, inflation, and rural livelihoods. Historical data shows El Niño years often correlate with deficient rains (e.g., 2002, 2009, 2014, 2015 droughts). The current forecast arrives amidst geopolitical tensions in West Asia disrupting fertilizer and energy supplies, compounding agricultural vulnerability.

Core Analysis & Implications

A 90% LPA forecast with uneven distribution poses severe risks. The 'monsoon core zone'—central India and the peninsula—faces shortfalls, directly affecting rain-fed crops like paddy. The timing is critical as input costs (fertilizer, fuel) are already high. This scenario can trigger cascading effects: lower crop yields, higher food inflation, stressed water tables, and increased demand for crop insurance and relief, straining fiscal resources.

Future Outlook / Way Forward

The government must prioritize adaptive strategies: promoting short-duration pulses, oilseeds, and millets; enforcing disciplined reservoir and groundwater management; and ensuring timely disbursal of crop insurance. Long-term measures include investing in drought-resistant crops, micro-irrigation, and diversifying fertilizer imports. Reliance on a late positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) for recovery is not a prudent strategy.

Key Facts at a Glance

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast90% of Long Period Average (LPA)

Probability of Deficient Year60%

Monsoon Onset Date (2026)June 4 (Kerala)

Regions Expected Normal RainNortheast India only

You've read the full analysis. Now test your understanding.

Practice exam-style questions based on this article.

Q1Static LinkageEasyUPSC, SSC, State PSC

Which ministry is primarily responsible for issuing the official monsoon forecast for India?

Q2Statement-basedHardUPSC, SSC

Consider the following statements regarding the southwest monsoon forecast for 2026 as per the article:

1. The monsoon onset over Kerala was delayed, occurring on June 4, which was also later than IMD's own forecast.

2. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a 60% probability of a deficient year.

3. All regions of India, except the northeast, are expected to receive normal rainfall during the monsoon season.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Q3Data-centricMediumUPSC, Banking, SSC

According to the India Meteorological Department's forecast mentioned in the article, what is the probability of the monsoon season being 'deficient' in 2026?

Q4Application/ImpactMediumUPSC, SSC

What is the primary reason cited in the article for the government to activate ministries on a 'war footing' in response to the monsoon forecast?

All 15 MCQs ▸

Read original article from The Hindu

You finished this topic

Practice 3 MCQs from this news Next Article

Explore Related Topics

EnvironmentView Topic MCQs →AgricultureView Topic MCQs →EconomyView Topic MCQs →

Next NFHS-6: National Stunting Falls to 29.3%, But Wasting at 19% and Breastfeeding Declines in UP, Jharkhand to 34.6%

Related Current Affairs

Agriculture Current Affairs

Monsoon Revival: Rainfall Deficiency Drops to 11.5%, Kharif Sowing Gap Narrows to 2.9%

The monsoon has revived significantly, reducing cumulative rainfall deficiency from 22.8% to 11.5% and narrowing the kharif sowing gap from 20.8% to 2.9%. However, El Niño is strengthening into a 'very strong' event, posing a serious threat to the upcoming rabi season. Proactive supply-side management will be crucial for food security.

Agriculture Current Affairs

Kharif Sowing Recovers to 894.22 lh (2.9% Gap), El Niño Threat Looms Over Rabi Crops

Despite a strengthening El Niño, July monsoon revived with 2.4% above LPA rainfall, narrowing kharif sowing gap to 2.9% below last year. However, El Niño is expected to become very strong by Oct-Dec 2026, with lagged effects threatening rabi crops and global food prices, especially vegetable oils. India's food stocks remain adequate but inflation risks persist.

Economy Current Affairs

E20 Ethanol Fuel Used in 4 Crore Vehicles; Flex-Fuel Engines to End ₹22 Lakh Cr Fuel Imports

E20 ethanol-blended petrol is being used in 4 crore four-wheelers and 20 million two-wheelers without harming vehicles and with improved mileage. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari announced that automobile companies will produce flex-fuel engines capable of running on 100% ethanol, potentially saving ₹22 lakh crore in fuel imports and boosting farmers' income through higher maize prices.

Economy Current Affairs

E20 Ethanol Blending Nears 20% in 2025: Water Footprint of 2,000-3,500 Litres per Litre Raises Sustainability Concerns

India's ambitious E20 ethanol blending programme—up from 1.5% in 2013–14 to nearly 20% in 2025—has reduced oil dependence but also hides serious environmental costs. Experts argue that without counting the huge water footprint of sugarcane ethanol, fossil-energy inputs, and vehicle compatibility issues, the policy risks replacing imported oil dependence with freshwater insecurity.

Agriculture Current Affairs

Maharashtra Drought Declared in 75% Tehsils, Monsoon Deficit 11.9% Raises Rabi Crop Concerns

Maharashtra has declared drought in nearly three-fourths of its tehsils, with the southwest monsoon ending 11.9% below average. The article warns of a poor rabi harvest due to depleted water reserves and a strong El Niño, urging duty-free imports of all pulses to manage food supply.

Economy Current Affairs

India's E20 Push: ₹2 Lakh Cr Forex Saved, But 77% Legacy Vehicles Face Damage Risks

India's ethanol blending programme has saved ₹2 lakh crore in foreign exchange and substituted 32 million tonnes of crude oil, but faces pushback over vehicle damage concerns for 77% of pre-2023 vehicles. The policy involves diversion of maize, FCI rice, and sugarcane juice for ethanol production, with potential food security risks during monsoon failure.

Economy Current Affairs

Sugar Prices Spike 44% in a Month, Govt Must Recalibrate Ethanol Policy to Protect Food Security

India's sugar prices surged 44% in a month (Rs 45 to Rs 65/kg) due to a perfect storm of lower production, low opening stocks, and ethanol diversion. The government's ethanol blending programme (20% by 2025-26) is competing with food markets, exposing a policy failure. This article is critical for understanding the food-fuel trade-off, government regulation, and the need for recalibration of the ethanol policy.

Economy Current Affairs

IIP Growth Hits 23-Month High at 7.3% in June 2026 Amid West Asia Crisis & Monsoon Deficiency

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 7.3% in June 2026, a 23-month high, driven by manufacturing, capital goods, and electricity sectors. However, this growth is partly due to a low base and seasonal factors (heatwave), and faces headwinds from a deficient monsoon and West Asia crisis. For exams, this data is a key static fact for Prelims, and the analysis offers Mains fodder on economic resilience vs. structural challenges.

Start Today's Quiz(15 Qs)

Take Today's Quiz

15 Qs • 5-7 Mins

IMD Forecasts Deficient Monsoon at 90% LPA with 60% Probability; El Niño Threatens Kharif Crop Amid Input Crisis

Exam Lens

Quick Exam Facts From News

1-Minute Revision

News Snapshot

Deficient Forecast

Agricultural Risk

El Niño & Policy Response

Detailed Analysis & Strategic Depth

Context / Background

Core Analysis & Implications

Future Outlook / Way Forward

Prelims Flashpoints

Key Facts at a Glance