IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon at 90% of LPA; El Niño to Impact Rabi Crops, Fertiliser Supply

Kharif Sowing Recovers to 894.22 lh (2.9% Gap), El Niño Threat Looms Over Rabi Crops

Despite a strengthening El Niño, July monsoon revived with 2.4% above LPA rainfall, narrowing kharif sowing gap to 2.9% below last year. However, El Niño is expected to become very strong by Oct-Dec 2026, with lagged effects threatening rabi crops and global food prices, especially vegetable oils. India's food stocks remain adequate but inflation risks persist.

Monsoon Revival: Rainfall Deficiency Drops to 11.5%, Kharif Sowing Gap Narrows to 2.9%

The monsoon has revived significantly, reducing cumulative rainfall deficiency from 22.8% to 11.5% and narrowing the kharif sowing gap from 20.8% to 2.9%. However, El Niño is strengthening into a 'very strong' event, posing a serious threat to the upcoming rabi season. Proactive supply-side management will be crucial for food security.

E20 Ethanol Fuel Used in 4 Crore Vehicles; Flex-Fuel Engines to End ₹22 Lakh Cr Fuel Imports

E20 ethanol-blended petrol is being used in 4 crore four-wheelers and 20 million two-wheelers without harming vehicles and with improved mileage. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari announced that automobile companies will produce flex-fuel engines capable of running on 100% ethanol, potentially saving ₹22 lakh crore in fuel imports and boosting farmers' income through higher maize prices.

E20 Ethanol Blending Nears 20% in 2025: Water Footprint of 2,000-3,500 Litres per Litre Raises Sustainability Concerns

India's ambitious E20 ethanol blending programme—up from 1.5% in 2013–14 to nearly 20% in 2025—has reduced oil dependence but also hides serious environmental costs. Experts argue that without counting the huge water footprint of sugarcane ethanol, fossil-energy inputs, and vehicle compatibility issues, the policy risks replacing imported oil dependence with freshwater insecurity.

Maharashtra Drought Declared in 75% Tehsils, Monsoon Deficit 11.9% Raises Rabi Crop Concerns

Maharashtra has declared drought in nearly three-fourths of its tehsils, with the southwest monsoon ending 11.9% below average. The article warns of a poor rabi harvest due to depleted water reserves and a strong El Niño, urging duty-free imports of all pulses to manage food supply.

India's E20 Push: ₹2 Lakh Cr Forex Saved, But 77% Legacy Vehicles Face Damage Risks

India's ethanol blending programme has saved ₹2 lakh crore in foreign exchange and substituted 32 million tonnes of crude oil, but faces pushback over vehicle damage concerns for 77% of pre-2023 vehicles. The policy involves diversion of maize, FCI rice, and sugarcane juice for ethanol production, with potential food security risks during monsoon failure.

Sugar Prices Spike 44% in a Month, Govt Must Recalibrate Ethanol Policy to Protect Food Security

India's sugar prices surged 44% in a month (Rs 45 to Rs 65/kg) due to a perfect storm of lower production, low opening stocks, and ethanol diversion. The government's ethanol blending programme (20% by 2025-26) is competing with food markets, exposing a policy failure. This article is critical for understanding the food-fuel trade-off, government regulation, and the need for recalibration of the ethanol policy.

Global Refinery Attacks Spike Sulphur Prices Above $1,000/Tonne; Threatens India's Phosphatic Fertiliser Supply

The energy crisis has shifted from crude oil supply to refined products. Attacks on refineries in Russia and West Asia have caused sulphur prices to skyrocket from $200 to $1,000/tonne, severely affecting India's ability to manufacture phosphatic fertilizers. This distinct crisis poses a long-term threat to India's food security and fertiliser imports even as the country enjoys surplus refining capacity.