India's vegetable oil, pulses, and cotton imports are expected to hit new records in 2026-27 due to a strengthening El Niño causing deficient monsoon rains and reduced kharif sowing. With a 24% cumulative rainfall deficit and an 81% probability of a 'very strong' El Niño by Oct-Dec, domestic production of rainfed crops is threatened, making this a critical issue for food inflation, trade deficit, and agricultural policy.
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- ›Vegetable Oil Imports (2025-26): 16.4 mt ($19.5 bn)
- ›Raw Cotton Imports (2025-26): 1.1 mt ($1.9 bn)
- ›Target this Data: Vegetable oil imports in 2025-26: 16.4 mt ($19.5 bn); Raw cotton: 1.1 mt ($1.9 bn); Pulses: nearly 6 mt ($3.6 bn)
- ›Target this Data: Cumulative rainfall deficit as of July 16, 2026: 24%
- ›Target this Data: NOAA forecast: 81% probability of 'very strong' El Niño during Oct-Dec 2026
- ›Target this Data: Government rice stock (June 1): 68.3 mt (min req: 13.5 mt); Wheat: 53.4 mt (min req: 27.6 mt)
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